Largely because of the lack of precedent, forecasting models are having a very difficult time accurately forecasting extreme weather events. With these extreme events increasing in frequency around the world, this poses several problems in the meteorology community – one of which is how best to warn the public about extreme events if even forecasters...
Weather forecasts play a crucial role in helping utility companies anticipate and prepare for weather events that could impact their operations. However, utility companies also face challenges in understanding and using weather forecasts, and their uncertainties, effectively. One of the primary challenges for utility companies is to predict unusual weather patterns or extreme weather events...
Researchers at the Stevens Institute of Technology studied the performance of seven short-term (nowcasting) models over the New York City area for 2014 to 2022. In the study, they used five deterministic models and two probabilistic models, along with radar data at various lead times to determine the accuracy of the various models. Deterministic models,...
The skill of United States weather forecasts in 2022, relative to persistence (assuming that the same weather will continue for the next few days), was greatest in the Midwest and Northeast and lowest in the Southwest, far south, and Hawaii. This is not surprising, considering that the weather varies most from day to day in...
Artificial intelligence (AI) models are quickly advancing within the field of weather forecasting. They synthesize historical weather observations and forecasts to come up with a current forecast based on what occurred in the past after similar conditions were present. As an alternative to current numerical weather forecast models, these AI versions are much faster and...
Daily changes in weather from day to day in 2022 were more varied from the Southwest United States to the Midwest and Northeast than they were in 2020, while variety decreased from Texas into the Southeast, as well as southern and southeast Alaska. Interestingly, these changes were generally seen across high temperatures, low temperatures, and...
Researchers at The University of Melbourne in Australia, recognizing that traditional flood models are very time-consuming even though very accurate, have created a new model for flood prediction that maintains high accuracy but takes significantly less time to run. With increasing flooding around the world, particularly as the climate continues to change and rainfall intensity...
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for the continental United States will now include reduced incoming solar radiation during eclipses for the next 40 years. This addition to the model will be operational for the continental United States for the first time this Saturday as a much-anticipated annular eclipse tracks across the West, with a...
We have just released a new report: Best Places to Live in the United States if You Need to Know What the Weather Will Be Like Tomorrow 2023! Hawaii, southern California, and southern Florida continued to be the most reliable places for weather forecasts in 2022, as they were in our previous report from 2021....
Attempts to more accurately forecast weather are beginning to use machine learning technology – or artificial intelligence – more extensively. Historical forecasts and observations are used to train machine learning models to find past forecasts that are most similar to a current target forecast. These past observations are used as inputs to generate ensemble forecasts...
