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According to a new study, artificial intelligence weather forecasting models could improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. The new AI system is shown to be as accurate as, or more accurate than, current leading methods, providing earlier lead times and warning times of large flooding events. Human-caused climate change has increased the frequency of flooding...

On February 2nd, numerous rodents arose from their slumber to offer a weather prediction for either an early spring or six more weeks of winter. In one of our previous blogs, we shared the predictions of four groundhogs. Were their predictions correct? Let’s take a look. According to NCEI, the contiguous United States experienced its...

The National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and the Met Office have been collaborating since the 1990s to develop ocean models that can increase weather forecasting capabilities. They recently extended their partnership contract another three years to continue work on one of their latest projects – underwater gliders.  Cutting-edge underwater gliders operated by NOC will navigate through...

Although hurricane season does not officially start until June 1st, experts already have growing concerns for the upcoming hurricane season. Two key factors, the return of La Nina and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean, are ingredients for explosive tropical development in the Atlantic this year. The current El Nino pattern is forecast to...

Each year on February 2nd, thousands of people gather to watch rodents from around the country emerge from their sleep and offer a weather prediction. The most well-known is a groundhog from Pennsylvania named Punxsutawney Phil, who is claimed to have been making predictions since 1886, despite the lifespan of a wild groundhog being roughly...

As with the United States and Europe, forecast skill is typically best where persistence performs worst; in other words, it is easier for weather forecasters to improve upon persistence where the weather varies the most from day to day, given the technology we have to get a good idea about how weather will change. That...

The skill of Europe weather forecasts in 2022, relative to persistence (assuming that the same weather will continue for the next few days), was greatest in Belgium and immediate adjoining areas of France, Germany, and The Netherlands. This is the only area on the European continent that saw forecasts capture over 40% more temperatures and...

In addition to looking at the United States and Europe by themselves, we also analyzed the reliability of weather forecasts and persistence across the entire world! There is a strong latitudinal relationship across the world to weather predictability. This makes sense, because near the Equator, the Sun is always high in the sky throughout the...

As with the United States, here at ForecastWatch, we analyzed the reliability of weather forecasts and persistence in Europe. The most reliable places for weather forecasts were in the United Kingdom and Ireland, southern Portugal, and small island locations in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea such as the Faroe Islands, Canary Islands, Rhodes, and...

Artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasts remain experimental, but Google DeepMind’s machine-learning model, called GraphCast, has recently produced forecasts that have been better than numerical forecast models and other AI forecasts. The model is so simple that it can be run on a typical desktop computer in minutes. While still experimental, this is potentially promising to...

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