Although hurricane season does not officially start until June 1st, experts already have growing concerns for the upcoming hurricane season. Two key factors, the return of La Nina and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean, are ingredients for explosive tropical development in the Atlantic this year.
The current El Nino pattern is forecast to transition to a La Nina pattern during the second half of the hurricane season. La Nina patterns generally lead to more tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic due to reduced wind shear, or disruptive winds high in the atmosphere. Too much wind shear can weaken or destroy tropical activity.
Looking back to 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons, La Nina was present both years, and the years are tied for the most active hurricane seasons in recorded history with 31 tropical systems.
Atlantic Ocean water temperatures are historically high, with water temperatures at the same level that is typically expected mid-July currently taking place. Water temperatures in the main development region were 65% higher in January than the next closest year, indicating that the waters are exceptionally warm and likely only to get warmer into the summer months.
The combination of La Nina returning and historically warm ocean temperatures could lead to a blockbuster hurricane season.
AccuWeather’s official hurricane season forecast will not be released until March. Other entities such as Colorado State University and the National Hurricane Center will not release their official forecasts until April and May respectively. Tropicalstormrisk.com released their early predictions for the 2024 hurricane season back in December, but largely agree with AccuWeather’s prediction for a very active season.
