Private forecasting companies have traditionally worked with available numerical weather prediction model data from governments around the world (such as the United States and the European Union) to make weather forecasts for their clients. They have typically used methods such as experience, local knowledge, and customization for clients to try to make their forecasts more...
Weather forecasting is a constantly evolving profession. Historically it has purely been about making a best guess about what will happen with the weather. The primary focus has usually been on just trying to minimize errors in this guessing process. Over time, rapid technological advancements, which have also helped lead to a large increase in...
Here at ForecastWatch, we analyze forecasts for temperatures, among other elements, for accuracy. All these factors (wind, precipitation, humidity, cloud cover, etc.) play a role in how temperatures feel to people. When a weather forecast is generated, the “temperature” indicated is how fast molecules are moving in the air around you. But there is often...
After another anomalous summer across the United States, particularly across the West, we here at ForecastWatch took a look at how summer temperatures have been changing over the years in 18 cities across the United States – at least one from each Census Division in the 50 U.S. states plus Puerto Rico. The cities we...
The supercomputers in Virginia and Arizona that forecast weather around the world, nicknamed “Dogwood” and “Cactus” respectively, received a huge upgrade in late June – to the tune of three times as fast as the previous computers used. The new computers operate at a speed of 12.1 petaflops each – which means 1.21 x 1016...
Shifting Baseline Syndrome – it sounds like a medical problem, but it’s not. It’s a term coined to describe the psychological and sociological changing of people’s thresholds of what is considered normal – or the “baseline” – in the absence of experience or information regarding what has occurred in the past. An article by Soga...
As written in an earlier blog post from ForecastWatch, measurements indicated that not enough dioxide was injected into the atmosphere to have any type of significant cooling effect on the atmosphere, as most powerful volcanic eruptions do, despite being the largest eruption since Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991. In fact, an earlier study this spring indicated...
A recent analysis by ForecastWatch found that the extreme heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada was forecast by computer models further in advance than nearly every human developed forecast. Recent technological advances are making it possible to forecast the potential for extreme weather events such as this up to 2-4 weeks in...
Will the massive January 14, 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano affect weather patterns yet this year and next? The ultimate answer to this question is obviously still to be determined, but the discussion below will elaborate on why the short answer is that weather patterns are not likely to be impacted. Typically,...
With a positive PDO, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are typically warmer than normal near the west coast of North America with cooler than normal SSTs present in the central North Pacific Ocean. In a negative PDO, this setup is opposite, with cooler than normal SSTs near North America’s west coast and warmer than normal SSTs...
