Growing concerns have continued for the upcoming hurricane season which begins on June 1st. Experts have been calling for the El Nino pattern to transition to a La Nina pattern during the hurricane season. La Nina, coupled with already historically warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, could make for an historic hurricane season.
In long term averages for hurricane seasons, 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes can be expected. The first named system in the Atlantic typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists estimating the first hurricane by August 11. Let’s see how this compares to recent predictions from various universities.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team issued its seasonal forecast on April 4. They are calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is the most aggressive forecast ever issued in the 30 years that the CSU team has been issuing April forecasts. If the numbers are verified, the number of named storms would rank as the third-highest on record; the number of hurricanes would rank as the fifth-highest; and the number of major hurricanes would rank as the ninth-highest.
North Carolina State University came to a similar conclusion as CSU. They are expecting an active hurricane season, with 15-20 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes.
The University of Arizona’s outlook suggests storms should form easily and often this year. They predict 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
The Weather Company also shared their predictions in April, suggesting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record. They expect to see 24 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.
Regardless of the exact numbers predicted, everyone seems to be in agreement that the 2024 hurricane season could be very active. The time to prepare is now! Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
