NEW REPORT: Analysis of 1-to-5-day-out Global Forecasts

June 12, 2024


Our amazing analysts at ForecastWatch examined 22 different weather forecast providers to provide a holistic analysis of weather forecast performance for global forecasts made one to five days in advance for 2023 by evaluating 13 different metrics.

Each provider was given one point for each month that the provider finished in first place for a given metric at a given location. The total number of points was counted and used to rank forecast providers. By evaluating forecast accuracy on a per-location granularity, we are able to evaluate which forecast provider offers the most accurate forecasts at the most locations around the globe. 

In our analysis, the overall most accurate weather forecast provider globally was Microsoft. Microsoft also had the highest metrics for temperatures (other than the mean absolute errors for MOS high and 24 hour low temperatures) and opacity percentage. The Weather Channel was the most accurate for the previous two temperature metrics mentioned, as well as precipitation equitable threat score and wind speed mean absolute error. Foreca/Vaisala was the most accurate for probability of precipitation Brier score. Weerplaza was the most accurate in the text sky cover category. 

Percentage wise, Microsoft had 34.73% of first-place finishes for all 13 metrics and one through five days out. The Weather Channel claimed 26.86% and Foreca/Vaisala took 8.86%.

This is the second consecutive year that Microsoft was named the overall most accurate weather forecast provider globally by ForecastWatch. With AI-technology driving improvements in its predictions, Microsoft is setting a new standard for forecast accuracy. 

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Solar and Wind Energy on the Rise in the U.S.

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Goodbye, El Niño!
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