The National Weather Service (NWS) shared a year’s worth of forecast accuracy data with The Washington Post, who then analyzed the data. This is the first time the government has shared this data publicly, so let’s see how they did.
When looking at the National Weather Service’s daily high temperature forecasts, a forecast was deemed accurate when it was within 3 degrees Fahrenheit of the actual observed high temperature.
The southwestern United States in areas such as California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado had accurate high temperature forecasts for 5 to 6 days out. In the majority of Florida, high temperature forecasts were spot-on for at least 7 days out.
The northwestern portions of the United States, as well as the eastern third of the country, had accurate forecasts 3 to 4 days out. The Great Plains had some of the most unpredictable weather in the U.S., with high temperature accuracy no more than 2 days out.
According to a recent study, if the NWS was able to double their forecast accuracy, it could save 2,200 lives per year. Keep a few things in mind though…
Accuracy often varies depending on the time of year. Some places are harder to predict weather in than others due to numerous factors. And, only high temperatures were considered in this analysis.
The Washington Post analysis above only looked at National Weather Service forecast accuracy, which is only one of many weather forecast providers. At ForecastWatch, we provide a far more comprehensive look at forecasts from more than two dozen forecast providers. Although the NWS does provide valuable services and data, they are often not the most accurate forecast provider compared to commercial providers.
To learn more about ForecastWatch accuracy analyses, visit https://forecastwatch.com/services/.
To see which forecast provider is most accurate for the zip code you live in, check out our ForecastAdvisor product at https://forecastadvisor.com/.
