Weather app usage has skyrocketed over the past 10-15 years, with roughly 90% of smartphone users having a weather app on their phone. Ensuring that consumers value and trust weather apps is very important to the integrity of weather forecasting. But with apps being interpreted solely by the app user, misunderstanding and consequent false expectations can jeopardize the public’s perception of accuracy and consistency.
In the public’s defense, some weather apps are notorious for offering excessively detailed, and potentially unrealistically detailed, forecasts on time and spatial scales, even extending far into the future, without sufficient disclaimers of confidence levels.
In a recent survey of the public, participants indicated that they take into account uncertainty and spatial variability when assessing specific or longer range forecasts on apps. On average, participants said they had low-to-moderate confidence in forecasts beyond 10 days. A significant majority said they did not perceive a precipitation as inaccurate, even when no rain occurred at their location, as long as it rained nearby.
When asked about common expressions of uncertainty in apps, such as probability of precipitation (PoP), a majority of participants interpreted PoPs correctly, although some misinterpreted the values to indicate intensity, totals, or duration of rain. Instances such as those misinterpretations could lead to false understandings and a false perception of accuracy and consistency from weather apps.
The study found that their results were encouraging for a society that relies heavily on weather apps, with the realization that more research needs to be done on weather information interpretation.
