A recent study led by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), used Kelvin waves to forecast active hurricane periods. The research showed that twice as many hurricanes form two days after the passing of large-scale atmospheric waves than in the days before.
Knowing this information, forecasters and emergency managers may be able to better anticipate clusters of hurricanes days to weeks in advance, helping to save lives and property.
For decades, scientists have noticed that hurricanes form in clusters followed by several weeks of little to no hurricane activity, with several studies suggesting that Kelvin waves could be responsible. However, scientists have largely been unable to separate out other potential factors and prove that.
NSF NCAR’s recent study used a computer simulation called Aquaplanet to capture fine-scale weather phenomena and global-scale atmospheric patterns simultaneously to simulate a hypothetical world that behaves like Earth. However, it is a simplified world, and does not have land or seasons, which makes it easier to isolate the effects of Kelvin waves on hurricane formation.
The simulation confirmed that Kelvin waves do in fact impact hurricane formation. It also emphasized the need to improve weather forecasting models to simulate Kelvin waves to help forecasters more accurately predict hurricanes.
