We have just released a new report: Best Places to Live or Work In the United States If You Need to Know What the Weather Will Be Like Tomorrow 2024!
The most accurate combination of forecasts and persistence was in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, with an average accuracy percentage of over 75%. The southwest U.S., including two-thirds of California outside the Sierra Nevada, extreme southern Nevada, southwest Arizona, and central and southern Florida saw an overall accuracy of 70-75%. These are the best places to live for those who desire to know what the weather will be like in the next few days. Generally, the farther south and/or closer to a large moderating body of water a location is, the more accurate the forecasts and persistence will be for the coming days.
The least accurate combination of forecasts and persistence existed across the Upper Midwest, specifically northern Minnesota and the immediately adjacent parts of extreme eastern North Dakota, as well as north central and northeast Alaska. The average accuracy was less than 55% in these areas.
In the case of the Upper Midwest, the locations are farther from large bodies of moderating water and they are exposed to a variety of frontal boundaries and air masses that can change weather conditions quickly, making persistence a bad indicator of coming weather and accurate forecasts tougher to make. For northern Alaska, the lack of observations make forecasting difficult partly due to inaccuracy.
The change in overall accuracy percentage from 2022 to 2023 was small. Less than a 4.5% increase or decrease was found in all areas except for extreme northern Alaska, where a decrease slightly higher than 4.5% was found.
Download our full report here.