Now that fall is in full swing, forecasters, businesses, and the public alike are turning their attention to the upcoming winter and what conditions may be in store for the United States.
On October 17, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released their official winter outlook. Although slower to develop than expected, forecasters still believe La Nina will influence the upcoming winter (December 1 through February 28). NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., as well as northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region to the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and mid-Atlantic states. Temperatures are expected to be cooler-than-average in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, with warmer-than-average temperatures in the south and east.
On October 14, AccuWeather released its prediction for the 2024-25 winter season. Their forecasters believe La Nina will be weak for most of the winter, with other factors such as the polar vortex and temperatures in the Gulf and northern Pacific driving the pattern and variability throughout the winter. AccuWeather says December will bring brief blasts of cold air that will trigger lake effect snow. To open 2025, they believe milder temperatures and less snow will be present across the eastern half of the U.S. Lastly, they predict the backend of winter to have the potential for multiple snowstorms in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
Since 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released weather forecasts, with the claim that they are 80% accurate. For this winter, they believe temperatures will be above average with snowfall below average throughout most of the United States. The Old Farmer’s Almanac says they’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter this year, which they say will be a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years. The Almanac does suggest there will be exceptions, like winter rain storms leaving Florida, the Deep South, and California soaked and heavy snowfall in Appalachia, the western Ohio Valley, and the Rockies.
As always, it will be interesting to see which predictions become reality, and which predictions were off the mark. Check back with us throughout the winter to see how NOAA, AccuWeather, and The Old Farmer’s Almanac fare. As more winter forecasts are published, we will look to include those as well.