The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. On average, the Atlantic basin sees 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. The first named system in the Atlantic typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists estimating the first hurricane by August 11. The peak of hurricane season typically occurs around September 10.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was above-normal with the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. It was also one of the deadliest and costliest seasons. What does 2025 have in store? A few experts have released early forecasts for the season.
Colorado State University (CSU) issued their first 2025 hurricane season forecast on April 3. They anticipate seeing above-normal activity in the basin again. CSU notes that it is uncertain what phase of ENSO will be in place during hurricane season, but notes that sea surface temperatures are generally warmer than normal, meaning that conditions are conducive for hurricane formation and intensification.
Number-wise, they are forecasting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. CSU also offered probabilities of major hurricane landfalls, including a 51% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline, a 26% chance on the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and a 33% chance for the Gulf Coast.
North Carolina State University issued their 2025 hurricane season forecast on April 15. They predict 12 to 15 named storms, which is in line with recent averages. Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, they expect 6 to 8 to become hurricanes, and 2 to 3 to become major hurricanes.
On April 9, the University of Arizona published their 2025 hurricane season forecast. Their forecast combines dynamic forecasts with machine learning. Due to expected sea surface temperatures to be slightly above average and the potential for ENSO to be a non-factor, the University believes the season should be fairly normal in terms of all categories. They predict 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Back on March 26, AccuWeather offered their own forecast for the 2025 season. Their lead hurricane expert warns that 2025 could be another volatile hurricane season, citing that warming ocean temperatures and deep warm pools of water could result in rapid intensification like last year. AccuWeather expects to see between 13 and 18 named storms, including 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast will not be issued until May 15.
If you live in an area that is prone to tropical weather, now is the time to take precautionary and preparedness measures.
