Experimental NOAA Tool Predicts Hourly Wildfire Hazards

In many parts of the United States, wildfires have become a year-round occurrence rather than a seasonal threat. In response to the escalating risk to communities, air quality, and the environment, scientists at NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory have created the Hourly Wildfire Potential Index (HWP), the first wildfire behavior model that refreshes every hour.

HWP is an experimental application of NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model and the next-generation Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) that provides an assessment of wildfire potential updated every hour based on model-predicted weather conditions.

Wildfire activity is known to change rapidly, so HWP’s frequent updates are able to provide more accurate and timely predictions of wildfire activity including the amount of emitted wildfire smoke. HWP incorporates predicted winds to estimate fire spread and intensity, humidity to estimate influence of atmospheric dryness on fuel moisture, and soil moisture derived from the HRRR’s advanced land surface model to predict the response of flammable vegetation to precipitation and drought.

Ultimately, the HWP could provide forecasters, land managers, emergency response officials, and firefighters improved situational awareness of rapidly developing wildfire hazards.