Researchers at the Institute of Industrial Science at The University of Tokyo developed a new statistical method to increase the accuracy of flood risk projects across about 70% of the Earth’s landmass. They noted that extreme rainfall due to climate change is a growing concern because humans often gather around waterways.
The new model expands the statistical sample size of the available ensemble data by merging parts of future climate scenarios with the same level of warming but different socioeconomic pathways that include economic growth, urbanization, and technological development.
The research team says their approach to using large-scale simulations along with global flood models and climate projection data allows them to more accurately evaluate future flood risks and offer policymakers new insights for adaptation and preparedness strategies. Their method uses specific warming levels such as 2C and 3C to base their predictions, rather than time-based predictions like most models use.
It is noted that considering warming levels independently may not be appropriate for all climate parameters. For example, rapid warming could affect ecosystems in a different way than a more gradual warming may.
