In our recently released report, Best Places to Live or Work in Europe if You Need to Know What the Weather Will Be Like Tomorrow 2025, we analyzed 593 locations across Europe to identify the countries with the highest and lowest overall average accuracy. The overall average accuracy averages forecast and persistence accuracy for high temperatures and low temperatures within three Fahrenheit degrees of the actual observed temperatures, as well as precipitation accuracy.
The most accurate combination of forecasts and persistence were found in Portugal, Malta, and Greece, with accuracies over 70%. In general, areas near large bodies of water (especially in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea) fared most accurately. Water has a high specific heat and thus takes longer to heat and cool than land, making forecasts easier due to less variation in temperatures. These are the best places to live for those who desire to know what the weather will be like in the next few days.
The least accurate combination of forecasts and persistence were found in Finland, Moldova, and Sweden, with accuracies less than 58%. In the case of the Nordic countries, although they are near large bodies of water, they are also far north near the Arctic Circle. Their proximity to the Arctic Circle means they deal with large variations of sunlight duration throughout the year and have a lack of exposure to the Gulf Stream and prevailing westerlies which leads to more varying temperatures like more inland locations experience. Scandinavia is also a relatively dry region because of the Kjølen Mountains, so precipitation is on the drier side and thus a bit easier to forecast in this region than temperatures are. A relative lack of observations in this northern region also leads to more inaccurate forecasts, as computer models depend on current observations. In the case of Moldova, forecasting can be challenging due to its ability to be influenced by different air masses, meaning weather patterns can be highly variable and change rapidly. Moldova also experiences irregular rainfall, which makes forecasting more difficult. These are the locations you would want to avoid if you need to know what the weather will be like in the next few days.
For more information, download our full report here.
We also created an interactive ArcGIS StoryMap to complement our report and allow you to inspect locations on your own! The StoryMap also includes slider maps to compare forecast versus persistence for various metrics.
All raw data for this study can be found here.
