Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings were hoisted for portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan ahead of a rapidly strengthening winter storm that impacted the region on December 28-29, 2025.
The potential for some of the biggest snow impacts of the season led major weather forecast providers to publish snowfall forecast maps calling for upwards of two feet of snow much of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Forecasts from The Weather Channel (first image), AccuWeather (second image), and the National Weather Service (third image) were all very similar for the event.
So, what actually happened, and were the forecasts accurate?
A large portion of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula along Lake Superior received over two feet of snow, while the rest of the UP generally saw 15-20”. Forecasts for this area were spot on. The far northern mitten of Michigan received nearly a foot of snow, which was within the upper bound of The Weather Channel and the National Weather Service forecasts, the lower bound of AccuWeather’s forecast.
The western coast of Michigan along Lake Michigan received around 6 to 8” of lake effect snow, which was in the upper bound of The Weather Channel and AccuWeather forecasts, and on the nose with the National Weather Service forecast.
In Wisconsin, all three providers predicted around 6 to 12 inches of snow for the northern half of the state, with slightly higher totals possible for a couple of counties that border the UP. Ultimately, these forecasts panned out very well.
Further west out in Minnesota, forecasts in the southern half of the state called for 3 to 6” of snow, with the Minnesota/Wisconsin border likely to see higher amounts near 6-12”. This region is where forecasts overestimated snow totals and where providers struggled the most. Most of the area saw 3 to 6 inches of snow.
Of course, there are many factors that can contribute to snowfall forecasts verifying or not. The exact path that the low pressure system takes can greatly affect where the sharp cutoff in totals may be. Sometimes a 20 mile difference can be the difference between no snow and 8” of snow. Surface temperatures and atmospheric temperatures also play a role in the type of precipitation that falls. With events like this one, where high winds were a factor, it is more difficult to obtain accurate reports. Oftentimes, high winds will cause snow to lay uneven on the ground, resulting in bare spots and higher drifts of snow.
Another thing to consider is that some weather forecast providers are better at predicting weather in specific regions, or better at predicting one forecast metric than another. To find out which provider is most accurate in your area, visit forecastadvisor.com. It will show you the accuracy of the major weather forecasters, provide links to your city’s weather forecast from all the weather forecasters, provide a five day forecast, and show you how much or little your city’s weather changes day to day.
The ForecastWatch suite of solutions offers a variety of ways to better understand the value and quality of weather forecasts to meet the needs of meteorologists, corporate clients, and media partners. If you could benefit from our accuracy data and analysis, contact us today at info@forecastwatch.com.