We are in uncharted climate territory – April marked the 11th consecutive month of record global heat. But some climate scientists say there is reason to predict planetary temperatures could moderate soon, though they would remain far above old normals because of human-caused global warming.

One climate scientist says that if 2024 follows current trends, global temperatures should fall out of record trends in the next month or two. We have been in an El Nino pattern over the past year, which has caused extreme heat waves, drought, and floods across the world. 

As El Nino wanes and we move into a La Nina pattern, ocean surface temperatures should cool. According to another climate scientist, how rapidly global temperatures moderate, if at all, will be key in gauging whether climate change is accelerating. If La Nina develops and the record warmth does not moderate, it could signal that humans have fundamentally altered” Earth’s climate system, he said.

Predictions for 2024 being the warmest year on record may not be met if La Nina does in fact bring cooler surface temperatures.