Last Wednesday, NOAA scientists received a message from the agency that told them due to recent service changes, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) will discontinue ingesting, processing, and distributing data by June 30. That date has since been pushed back one month, to the end of July, but that still puts an end to the critical data before the peak of hurricane season – a move that could set hurricane forecasting back by decades.

There are three DMSP satellites in use, each with unique characteristics and the ability to map the entire world twice a day with extremely high resolution. These satellites are a primary source of information for scientists to monitor Arctic sea ice and hurricane development. Scientists say the decision to halt the DMSP data will result in immediately degraded hurricane forecasts during what is expected to be an above-average season, and will create a gap in sea ice monitoring in a time that Arctic sea ice is hitting new record lows.

Federal hurricane forecasters say this will create an instant loss of roughly half of their capabilities, and that they can’t be expected to make accurate forecasts and warnings without these vital tools. Especially after prior cuts to the Hurricane Hunters, the ability to predict rapid intensification of hurricanes or estimate the strength of storms will be more difficult. Ultimately, less accurate forecasts could increase risks to life and property.

Researchers say the satellites are operating normally and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would physically prevent the data from being collected and distributed. It appears the abrupt data halt must have been an intentional decision.