Europe Best Places to Live Report: Forecast Skill

January 8, 2024

The skill of Europe weather forecasts in 2022, relative to persistence (assuming that the same weather will continue for the next few days), was greatest in Belgium and immediate adjoining areas of France, Germany, and The Netherlands. This is the only area on the European continent that saw forecasts capture over 40% more temperatures and precipitation accurately than persistence did.

Most of the rest of the continent saw skill between 30% and 40%, though areas with little variety in daily weather, such as most of the United Kingdom and Ireland, small islands in the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, and areas of the Mediterranean coast, saw skill of less than 30%. This is because it is tough to have forecasts improve upon daily weather that already does not vary much on a daily basis.

Most of this skill was shown in temperatures, particularly high temperatures across Germany, Belgium, The Netherlands, and northeast France, and much less in precipitation. Precipitation is typically hard to forecast, especially when it occurs locally such as in thunderstorms, so this is an expected result. Thus, if you want weather forecasts that are best relative to what you could forecast yourself assuming the current weather will stay the same, Belgium is the best place to be, even though weather forecasts are still better overall on small islands and in more coastal areas such as the United Kingdom.

For a breakdown of forecast skill by high temperature, low temperature, and precipitation, as well as how this skill is calculated, see the full report here.

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New Report Released: Best Places to Live in the World

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Best Forecast Skill in the World
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