In nearly unanimous agreement, experts thought this year’s hurricane season would be one for the record books. Hurricane activity started with a bang with Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in late June and early July. Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto developed in early and mid August, but the tropics have since been unusually quiet over the last month, leaving meteorologists and the publix perplexed.
Experts say there has not been such a long stretch without hurricane formations between August and September since 1968, but they say there are a few reasons as to why it has occurred. An unusually warm layer of air in the upper atmosphere has increased stability, making it harder for storms to form. The West African monsoon, which is typically a prolific generator of tropical waves, has shifted northward. The northward shift has steered potential storms into less-favorable environments, not allowing them to form. Saharan dust has also been more prevalent than anticipated this year, leading to suppressed development as well.
Despite the recent lull in tropical weather activity, record warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic remain favorable for storm development. Hurricane season typically peaks around September 10th, and there is still plenty of time for development. Hurricane season still has about 12 weeks left until it officially ends on December 1st.
Will recently-named Hurricane Francine get the tropics ramped up again? We’ll find out soon enough!
