As written in an earlier blog post from ForecastWatch, measurements indicated that not enough dioxide was injected into the atmosphere to have any type of significant cooling effect on the atmosphere, as most powerful volcanic eruptions do, despite being the largest eruption since Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991. In fact, an earlier study this spring indicated...
A recent analysis by ForecastWatch found that the extreme heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada was forecast by computer models further in advance than nearly every human developed forecast. Recent technological advances are making it possible to forecast the potential for extreme weather events such as this up to 2-4 weeks in...
Will the massive January 14, 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano affect weather patterns yet this year and next? The ultimate answer to this question is obviously still to be determined, but the discussion below will elaborate on why the short answer is that weather patterns are not likely to be impacted. Typically,...
With a positive PDO, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are typically warmer than normal near the west coast of North America with cooler than normal SSTs present in the central North Pacific Ocean. In a negative PDO, this setup is opposite, with cooler than normal SSTs near North America’s west coast and warmer than normal SSTs...
Energy companies can benefit greatly by accurate wind forecasts as wind energy use increases rapidly in response to growing calls for renewable energy sources. A recent study by Jeon et. al., published in the May 2022 Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, compared the accuracy of forecasts from the newer and older versions of the...
As humans, we have learned that there are limitations in what we can predict the atmosphere will do. It’s a chaotic system with many tiny details that influence how the atmosphere evolves. Thus, humans developed computer forecast models – complex computer programs that run on the world’s fastest supercomputers and solve the intricate fundamental equations...
Event Summary: The late June heatwave that gripped the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada for several days didn’t just break numerous all-time records; it shattered them. Sadly, over 1,400 deaths were attributed to this heatwave, the result of unprecedented high temperatures in an area unaccustomed and ill-equipped to handle the heat of this magnitude. While...
In today’s ultra-sophisticated, data-rich environment, where forecasts are generated at the push of a button, it can be hard to imagine that weather prognostication was once a new and rudimentary science. Yet, it wasn’t that long ago when forecasting was in its infancy. An article in The New Yorker detailed the fascinating evolution of forecasts...
We are living in the age of influence. Look no further than the number of Kim Kardashian followers on Instagram or the number of views the latest viral video has received. The power of influence is wielded by savvy marketers to strengthen a brand and to generate presumed expertise. However, it doesn’t work that way...
Smoke Contributes to Inaccurate Forecasts This month’s epic fires in the western United States have been among the worst ever. As of this writing, they’ve burned close to 7 million acres, killed almost 40 people, and contributed to unhealthy air and greatly reduced visibility in many western cities. These fires have had other consequences as...
