Eric Floehr, founder and CEO of ForecastWatch, was recently interviewed by BBC about how weather apps are trying to become more accurate. Eric says “Tech improvements have resulted in improvements to forecasts, they’re more accurate and reliable. These days people are using them multiple times a day, there’s more real-time application of weather forecasting, looking...
Artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasts remain experimental, but Google DeepMind’s machine-learning model, called GraphCast, has recently produced forecasts that have been better than numerical forecast models and other AI forecasts. The model is so simple that it can be run on a typical desktop computer in minutes. While still experimental, this is potentially promising to...
Largely because of the lack of precedent, forecasting models are having a very difficult time accurately forecasting extreme weather events. With these extreme events increasing in frequency around the world, this poses several problems in the meteorology community – one of which is how best to warn the public about extreme events if even forecasters...
Transitioning from fall to winter often brings wild temperature swings, where it may feel like winter in the morning and summer in the afternoon. Whether weather impacts your daily personal decisions such as simply what to wear, or business decisions like how the weather impacts utilities, people often find themselves searching for the most accurate...
Weather forecasts play a crucial role in helping utility companies anticipate and prepare for weather events that could impact their operations. However, utility companies also face challenges in understanding and using weather forecasts, and their uncertainties, effectively. One of the primary challenges for utility companies is to predict unusual weather patterns or extreme weather events...
Researchers at the Stevens Institute of Technology studied the performance of seven short-term (nowcasting) models over the New York City area for 2014 to 2022. In the study, they used five deterministic models and two probabilistic models, along with radar data at various lead times to determine the accuracy of the various models. Deterministic models,...
The skill of United States weather forecasts in 2022, relative to persistence (assuming that the same weather will continue for the next few days), was greatest in the Midwest and Northeast and lowest in the Southwest, far south, and Hawaii. This is not surprising, considering that the weather varies most from day to day in...
Artificial intelligence (AI) models are quickly advancing within the field of weather forecasting. They synthesize historical weather observations and forecasts to come up with a current forecast based on what occurred in the past after similar conditions were present. As an alternative to current numerical weather forecast models, these AI versions are much faster and...
Daily changes in weather from day to day in 2022 were more varied from the Southwest United States to the Midwest and Northeast than they were in 2020, while variety decreased from Texas into the Southeast, as well as southern and southeast Alaska. Interestingly, these changes were generally seen across high temperatures, low temperatures, and...
Researchers at The University of Melbourne in Australia, recognizing that traditional flood models are very time-consuming even though very accurate, have created a new model for flood prediction that maintains high accuracy but takes significantly less time to run. With increasing flooding around the world, particularly as the climate continues to change and rainfall intensity...
