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Attempts to more accurately forecast weather are beginning to use machine learning technology – or artificial intelligence – more extensively. Historical forecasts and observations are used to train machine learning models to find past forecasts that are most similar to a current target forecast. These past observations are used as inputs to generate ensemble forecasts...

Most of the more developed countries in the world, particularly in North America, Europe, Australia, and eastern Asia, have fairly accurate weather forecasts, especially in the short term. This is due largely to technological advances and the availability of weather services to use that technology to make and distribute these forecasts to users. However, most...

Can a weather forecast accuracy improvement of only 1 Celsius degree during heat waves actually save lives? According to research by Jeffrey Shrader, Laura Bakkensen, and Derek Lemoine, researchers at Columbia University and the University of Arizona, the answer is yes. They studied 12 years of weather forecasts and mortality data at the county level...

From extreme heat waves, wildfires, and rainfall, we’ve seen a lot of this extreme weather over the past several years throughout the world. With 2023 already having a 50% chance of becoming the hottest year on record, and 2024 potentially being even warmer due largely to El Niño, these events will very likely only continue...

In November 2022, ForecastWatch took a look at linear trends in summer temperatures in the United States. Now we’ll take a look at linear trends in winter temperatures across the United States after a rather warm winter in the eastern United States, particularly in the Southeast. We looked at the same 18 cities we analyzed...

Forecasting individual thunderstorm formation is a unique challenge in the meteorological world. Thunderstorms often form seemingly randomly, developing in very hard to predict places, morphing into different forms, and merging or dividing. This is especially true with air mass thunderstorms in hot and humid air masses. Meteorologists can say there’s a given chance of thunderstorms,...

Private forecasting companies have traditionally worked with available numerical weather prediction model data from governments around the world (such as the United States and the European Union) to make weather forecasts for their clients. They have typically used methods such as experience, local knowledge, and customization for clients to try to make their forecasts more...

Weather forecasting is a constantly evolving profession. Historically it has purely been about making a best guess about what will happen with the weather. The primary focus has usually been on just trying to minimize errors in this guessing process. Over time, rapid technological advancements, which have also helped lead to a large increase in...