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As with the United States and Europe, forecast skill is typically best where persistence performs worst; in other words, it is easier for weather forecasters to improve upon persistence where the weather varies the most from day to day, given the technology we have to get a good idea about how weather will change. That...

The skill of Europe weather forecasts in 2022, relative to persistence (assuming that the same weather will continue for the next few days), was greatest in Belgium and immediate adjoining areas of France, Germany, and The Netherlands. This is the only area on the European continent that saw forecasts capture over 40% more temperatures and...

In addition to looking at the United States and Europe by themselves, we also analyzed the reliability of weather forecasts and persistence across the entire world! There is a strong latitudinal relationship across the world to weather predictability. This makes sense, because near the Equator, the Sun is always high in the sky throughout the...

As with the United States, here at ForecastWatch, we analyzed the reliability of weather forecasts and persistence in Europe. The most reliable places for weather forecasts were in the United Kingdom and Ireland, southern Portugal, and small island locations in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea such as the Faroe Islands, Canary Islands, Rhodes, and...

Eric Floehr, founder and CEO of ForecastWatch, was recently interviewed by BBC about how weather apps are trying to become more accurate. Eric says “Tech improvements have resulted in improvements to forecasts, they’re more accurate and reliable. These days people are using them multiple times a day, there’s more real-time application of weather forecasting, looking...

Artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasts remain experimental, but Google DeepMind’s machine-learning model, called GraphCast, has recently produced forecasts that have been better than numerical forecast models and other AI forecasts. The model is so simple that it can be run on a typical desktop computer in minutes. While still experimental, this is potentially promising to...

Largely because of the lack of precedent, forecasting models are having a very difficult time accurately forecasting extreme weather events. With these extreme events increasing in frequency around the world, this poses several problems in the meteorology community – one of which is how best to warn the public about extreme events if even forecasters...

Transitioning from fall to winter often brings wild temperature swings, where it may feel like winter in the morning and summer in the afternoon. Whether weather impacts your daily personal decisions such as simply what to wear, or business decisions like how the weather impacts utilities, people often find themselves searching for the most accurate...

Weather forecasts play a crucial role in helping utility companies anticipate and prepare for weather events that could impact their operations. However, utility companies also face challenges in understanding and using weather forecasts, and their uncertainties, effectively. One of the primary challenges for utility companies is to predict unusual weather patterns or extreme weather events...

Researchers at the Stevens Institute of Technology studied the performance of seven short-term (nowcasting) models over the New York City area for 2014 to 2022. In the study, they used five deterministic models and two probabilistic models, along with radar data at various lead times to determine the accuracy of the various models. Deterministic models,...

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